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一、引言文献认为本世纪以来,中国大陆及其邻区经历了4个地震活跃期(1897～1912,1920～1937,1946～1957,1966～1980)。自1988以来中国大陆开始进入第五个活跃期。在未来的三年内第五活跃期是将要结束还是还会持续几年?未来3年我国大陆强震的主体活动区主要在那里?为此我们根据地震活动资料对1998～2000年中国大陆地震活动的大趋势作了初步研究,主要内容如下: (1)中国大陆强震累积频度与发震时间的关系。 (2)利用应变积累释放曲线研究中国大陆各地震区地震活动的平静期和活跃期。 (3)中国大陆各主要地震活动区强震复发周期及其未来1～3年的地震危险性估计。 (4)伽师及其临近地区地震活动与中国大陆其他地震活动区的相关性分析。
I. Introduction The literature suggests that since the beginning of this century, the Chinese mainland and its neighboring regions have experienced four active periods of earthquake (1897-1912, 1920-1937, 1946-1957 and 1966-1980). Mainland China has entered its fifth active phase since 1988. In the next three years, the fifth active phase is about to end or will it last for a few years? In the next three years, is the main active area of strong earthquakes in China’s mainland there? For this reason, according to the seismic activity data of the earthquakes in mainland China from 1998 to 2000 The main contents are as follows: (1) The relationship between the cumulative frequency of strong earthquakes in Mainland China and the time of occurrence of an earthquake. (2) The stratification and active period of seismic activity in all earthquake areas in mainland China were studied by strain accumulation release curve. (3) Earthquake Recurrence Period and Seismic Hazard Estimates of Major Earthquake Areas in Mainland China 1-3 Years Later. (4) Correlation analysis between seismic activity in Jiashi and other nearby areas and other seismic activity areas in mainland China.