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理论分析表明,就货币政策中介目标选择的相关性标准而言,狭义货币供应量M1优于广义货币供应量M2。实证结果表明:M1、M2均与产出和物价之间存在协整关系,M1是实际GDP、物价水平变化率的格兰杰原因,M2与实际GDP、物价水平变化率则互为格兰杰原因;物价水平变化率对M1冲击具有持久的正向响应,对M2冲击无正向响应。实际GDP对M1冲击有显著、持久的正向响应,对M2冲击有不稳定的正向和负向响应。因此,我国仍应以M1作为货币政策中介目标,将M2作为观测目标。
Theoretical analysis shows that the narrow money supply M1 is superior to the broad money supply M2 in terms of the relevance of the intermediary choice of monetary policy. The empirical results show that there is a cointegration relationship between M1 and M2 and output and price, M1 is the Granger reason for the change rate of real GDP and price level, M2 is the same as Granger between real GDP and price level The reason is that the rate of change of price level has a lasting positive response to M1 impact and no positive response to M2 impact. The actual GDP has a significant and lasting positive response to M1 shocks, with instable positive and negative responses to M2 shocks. Therefore, our country should still use M1 as the monetary policy intermediary target and M2 as the observing target.