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在美国,作为可能最大洪水(PMF)基础的可能最大降水(PMP)估算在水文设计申的应用,已有近五十年的历史了。PMP水平的主要依据是特大暴雨的实测记录,以及暴雨极大化、移置和外包等概念。五十年来,这种估算方法不断得到了改进。取决于等雨量线方位的暴雨(面积)内降雨,以及落在PMP暴雨笼罩下的那部分设计流域面积外的相应雨等概念,在最近10年内陆续发展起来。新近的研究工作是针对山区的PMP估算,本文对此做了简要的介绍。美国目前在PMP方面的工作是把PMP估值同其他降雨指标进行一系列的对比分析,来评估PMP估算成果的水平。不久前,美国成立两个专门的国家委员会,对现行的PMP方法和概率途径加以研讨,得出以下两个结论:一、应该继续采用PMP作为普遍的设计标准;二、没有任何一种方法能够可靠地确定PMP或PMF的概率。
In the United States, nearly 50 years have passed since the PMP estimate as the basis for the largest possible flood (PMF) has been applied in hydrological design. The main basis of PMP level is the actual record of torrential rain, as well as the concept of maximum rainfall, relocation and outsourcing. This estimation method has been continuously improved over the past 50 years. The concept of rain, which falls into the rainstorm (area) of the same rainfall line and the corresponding rain which falls outside the design basin area covered by the rainstorm of the PMP, has been gradually developed in the last 10 years. Recent research work is aimed at mountain PMP estimation, this article made a brief introduction. The United States’ current PMP work is to conduct a series of comparative analyzes of PMP estimates with other rainfall indicators to assess the level of PMP estimates. Not long ago, the United States set up two special national committees to discuss the existing PMP methods and probabilistic approaches. The following two conclusions can be drawn: First, PMP should continue to be adopted as a universal design standard; and second, is there any way to implement Probably determine the probability of PMP or PMF.