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采用LMDI法建立中国人均碳排放量的因素分解模型,基于1991～2008年数据分析了经济发展、能源结构和能源效率等因素的变化所引起的碳排放量变动趋势。结果显示:经济发展与人均碳排放量成正比关系,与能源结构和能源效率成反比关系,且这两个因素与人均碳排放量呈倒U型曲线关系。这说明经济发展的促进作用大于能源效率和能源结构的抑制作用,碳排放量仍在增加。因此,我国应该积极采取措施提高能源效率,改善能源结构,尤其要提升经济发展质量。
The LMDI method was used to establish the factor decomposition model of per capita carbon emissions in China. Based on the data from 1991 to 2008, the change trend of carbon emissions caused by changes in economic development, energy structure and energy efficiency was analyzed. The results show that the economic development is directly proportional to carbon emissions per capita, and is inversely proportional to the energy structure and energy efficiency. These two factors are inverse U-shaped with carbon emissions per capita. This shows that the promotion of economic development is greater than the inhibitory effect of energy efficiency and energy structure, and carbon emissions are still increasing. Therefore, our country should take active measures to improve energy efficiency, improve energy structure, and especially enhance the quality of economic development.