以2005—2009年间的分析师荐股和盈余预测活动为背景,本文探讨中国证券分析师活动的独立性。结果表明,承销关系对分析师荐股和预测活动产生重要影响,主要表现为证券分析师更愿意对其隶属券商承销过的股票给出更为积极的评价。我们还发现,在盈余公告即将发布时,关联分析师盈余预测的乐观性却降低,盈余预测与真实值的相对偏差也更大。这说明,关联分析师具有盈余预测预期管理的动机,他们会以牺牲预测精确性为代价而在盈余公告即将发布时调低预测,使公司的实际每股收益战胜市场预期,从而博得公司管理层的好感。借鉴Malmendier and Shanthikumar(2009)的说法,就是关联分析师的战略性扭曲动机非常强烈。 Taking the analyst recommendation and earnings forecasting activities from 2005 to 2009 as the background, this article explores the independence of the activities of China securities analysts. The results show that the underwriting relationship has an important impact on the analyst’s recommendation and forecasting activities, mainly because the securities analyst is more willing to give a more positive assessment of the stocks underwritten by the securities brokerage. We also found that the optimistic earnings forecast of affiliated analysts declined as earnings announcements were released, and the relative bias between earnings forecasts and real values ​​was greater. This shows that affiliates have the incentive to forecast prospective earnings forecasts by lowering forecasts at the earliest time the earnings announcements are made at the expense of forecast accuracy, allowing the company’s actual earnings per share to beat market expectations and gaining management support Good feeling Drawing from Malmendier and Shanthikumar (2009), there is a strong motivation for the strategic distortions of affiliates.