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地方财政收入不仅是国家财政收入的重要组成部分,也是地方政府行使其财政职能的重要保障。建立科学合理的财政收入预测模型,提高预测精度,可以为制定财政支出计划提供有利的数据支持。本文按照定性与定量分析相结合的原则,结合广西财政收入的构成结构和特点,使用指数平滑、ARIMA模型、计量回归模型对财政收入进行预测,在广西2001~2016实际数据的支持下预测出广西2017~2019年的财政收入,为做好地方财政收支的三年滚动预算和领导决策提供科学依据和技术支持。
Local fiscal revenue is not only an important part of state revenue, but also an important safeguard for local governments in exercising their financial functions. Establishing a scientific and reasonable financial revenue forecasting model to improve forecasting accuracy can provide favorable data support for the formulation of fiscal expenditure plans. Based on the principle of combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis and combining with the compositional structure and characteristics of Guangxi’s fiscal revenue, this paper predicts the fiscal revenue using exponential smoothing, ARIMA model and metrological regression model, and predicts Guangxi with the support of the actual data from 2001 to 2016 in Guangxi The fiscal revenue from 2017 to 2019 will provide scientific basis and technical support for the three-year rolling budget and leadership decision-making of local revenue and expenditure.