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考虑大坝蓄水期监测资料平稳性较差、坝体性态随水位升高而有所改变等特征,在原有传统统计模型的参数求解过程中引入遗忘因子,通过建立遗忘矩阵突出现在及近期资料对模型的贡献,尝试建立了大坝蓄水期监测资料的时变分析模型。实例分析表明,由于模型参数根据大坝蓄水期实际情况实时进行了阶段性更新,其拟合及预测精度均优于传统统计模型,更适用于蓄水期监测资料分析。
Considering the poor stability of dam monitoring data and the change of dam behavior with the increase of water level, the forgetting factor is introduced in the process of solving the parameters of the original traditional statistical model, and the current and recent Data contribution to the model, trying to establish a dam time of monitoring data storage time-varying analysis model. The case study shows that the fitting and prediction accuracy of the model parameters is better than the traditional statistical model and is more suitable for data analysis of the reservoir water storage period because the model parameters are updated in real time according to the actual situation of the dam water storage period.