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1973年的石油危机在经合组织成员国中引发了一场能源消费革命,除运输部门以外,20年间石油需求量大幅度下降。今后,随着石油替代品发展潜力和节油潜力的减少,经合组织的石油需求将稳步增长;而到2005年,非经合组织国家的石油消费量有可能超过经合组织。由于石油供应严重依赖政治动荡的中东地区,而且应急石油库存相对减少,世界经济将变得更加脆弱。因此,能源安全问题仍同20年前一样重要。然而,重要不一定等于重视。政策制定者们应明智地把更多的注意力集中在维护能源安全方面。实现长期能源安全保障的基本条件是:供应来源多样化、能源高效率、灵活的能源系统及能源市场。
The 1973 oil crisis triggered a revolution in energy consumption among OECD member countries, with the exception of the transport sector, which saw a sharp drop in oil demand in 20 years. In the future, as the potential for oil substitute development and the potential for saving oil have been reduced, the OECD’s oil demand will steadily grow. By 2005, non-OECD countries may have more oil consumption than OECD. The world economy will become more vulnerable due to the oil supply relying heavily on the political turmoil in the Middle East and the relative reduction in emergency oil stocks. Therefore, energy security is still as important as it was 20 years ago. However, importance does not necessarily mean equal importance. Policymakers should wisely focus more on energy security. The basic conditions for long-term energy security are: diversified sources of supply, energy-efficient, flexible energy systems and energy markets.