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一季度经济增速出现快速回落,物价涨幅得到有效控制。未来一个时期中国经济面临的风险主要是四个方面:经济增速过快下滑的风险,欧债危机忧虑再度升温导致的外需降低风险,企业经营困难加剧的风险,物价走势下半年反弹的风险。从长期来看,中国经济依然面临着发展方式转变进展缓慢、结构调整任务艰巨等深层次矛盾和问题。估计全年经济运行整体将较为平稳,不存在V形反转或“硬着陆”风险。
In the first quarter, the economy slowed down rapidly and the price increase was effectively controlled. In the coming period, the risks to the Chinese economy are mainly four aspects: the risk of an excessive decline in economic growth, the risk of decreasing external demand caused by the renewed warming of the debt crisis in Europe, the aggravation of business difficulties and the rebound in price trends in the second half of the year. In the long run, the Chinese economy is still facing deep-rooted contradictions and problems in the slow development of its transformation of development modes and the arduous task of structural adjustment. It is estimated that the overall economic operation throughout the year will be relatively stable with no risk of V-reversal or “hard landing”.