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本文通过建立门限回归模型,研究了华北地区气候变化与强震发生的关系,发现明显有大约12年的延时相关。该延时尺度对中国其它地区和日本、美国的地震活动也同样适合。认为气候多雨是长期地震预报中的一个可用重要因素。
In this paper, we establish a threshold regression model to study the relationship between climate change and strong earthquakes in North China and find that there is an obvious delay of about 12 years. The delay scale is also suitable for seismic activities in other parts of China and Japan and the United States. Climate change is considered to be a significant factor in the long-term earthquake prediction.