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2014/2015年度我国稻谷播种面积和产量再次上升,消费量和净进口量也略有增长,供求平衡有余,期末库存将继续增加。在供求与政策等因素的共同作用下,本年度前半年稻米价格总体上呈稳中有升走势,比上年度同期有所提高,“政策市”特征比较明显。展望后半年稻米市场,由于稻谷结余进一步增加,进口量也将维持高位,而消费量和出口又难以扩大,价格下行压力较强。但在国家托市政策的支持下,稻米市场价格涨跌空间都有限,后期走势变化主要取决于国家政策稻谷竞拍价格和2015年的稻谷生长情况。
In 2014/2015, the sown area and output of paddy in our country once again rose up. Consumption and net imports also increased slightly. Balance between supply and demand was more than expected, and ending stocks would continue to increase. Under the combined effect of supply and demand, policies and other factors, the price of rice in the first half of this year showed a steady increase with a rise over the same period of the previous year, with obvious characteristics of “policy market”. Looking ahead to the rice market in the second half of the year, due to the further increase in the rice balance, the volume of imports will also remain high while consumption and exports will be hard to expand with strong downward pressure on prices. However, under the support of the national market-support policy, there is limited room for changes in rice market prices. The changes in the later stages mainly depend on the national policy of rice auction prices and the growth of rice in 2015.