本文针对当地马尾松毛虫(Dendrotimus punctatus Walker)的发生特点,进行了利用繁殖量指标,预测马尾松毛虫的种群趋势和被害程度的分析研究。当地近年应用结果表明,预报准确率可达90％以上。繁殖量指数与虫情增长倍数一般情况下成正比,但当繁殖量指数大于180时,其增长倍数反而减少,且不稳定,其原因有待进一步研究。 In this paper, according to the characteristics of the local Dendrotimus punctatus Walker, the prediction and prediction of the population tendency and the degree of victimization of Dendrotimus punctatus Walker were carried out using the index of reproduction. Local application results show that in recent years, forecast accuracy up to 90%. Reproductive quantity index is proportional to the growth of insects, but when the index of reproduction is greater than 180, the multiplication index decreases and becomes unstable, the reason for further study.