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运用灰色系统理论和方法 ,研究了森林火灾受害面积变化趋势的预测和分析方法。以江西省为例 ,建立了GM( 1 ,1 )预测模型 ,得出了灰色预测曲线和灰色预测区间 ,并对 2 0 1 0年前该省森林火灾情况进行了预测和分析 ,从而为森林保护的有关决策提供了依据。此外 ,通过预测精度分析 ,以及与回归方法的比较分析 ,表明本文方法已达到精度要求 ,且明显优于白色预测方法。
By using gray system theory and method, the forecasting and analyzing methods of the changing trend of the area affected by forest fire are studied. Taking Jiangxi Province as an example, a GM (1, 1) forecasting model was established and gray forecasting curves and gray forecasting intervals were obtained. The forecast and analysis of forest fires in the province before 2010 was carried out, Provide the basis for decision-making on protection. In addition, through the prediction accuracy analysis and comparative analysis with the regression method, this method shows that the method has reached the accuracy requirements and is obviously superior to the white prediction method.