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目的评估中国湖北、安徽和广西8个县(区)的疟疾风险可能性,为疟疾风险管理提供策略建议。方法于2015年7月—2016年2月,采用分层随机抽样和典型抽样相结合的方法在湖北、安徽和广西个地区抽取8个样本县(区)进行调查,通过文献研究、头脑风暴和专家咨询等方法编制调查资料,选取出7个代表性指标,运用加权综合指数法对样本地区的疟疾风险可能性进行评估。结果样本地区疟疾风险可能性分别为A地0.001 30、B地0.000 72、C地0.000 39、D地0.000 36、E地0.001 78、F地0.001 04、G地0.000 40、H地0.001 85;虽然总体上疟疾风险可能性不大,但仍存在一定程度的传染源风险、传播媒介风险和人群暴露风险;8个样本地区疟疾风险可能性排序为H>E>A>F>B>G>C>D,疟疾风险可能性最高的为H地,最低的为D地,两者差距较大。结论中国疟疾风险可能性的降低需要各地区疾病预防控制机构从控制传染源、切断传播途径和保护风险人群3个方面予以解决;坚持政府主导,通过监测、培训、宣教和沟通协作等进行风险防范,逐步完善疟疾风险管理体系。
Objective To assess the possibility of malaria risk in eight counties (districts) of Hubei, Anhui and Guangxi in China, and to provide strategies for malaria risk management. Methods From July 2015 to February 2016, 8 sample counties (districts) in Hubei, Anhui and Guangxi were selected for investigation by stratified random sampling and typical sampling. Through literature review, brainstorming and Expert consultation and other methods to compile survey data, select seven representative indicators, the use of weighted composite index method to assess the possibility of malaria risk in the sample area. Results The likelihoods of malaria in the sample area were respectively A 0.00130, B 0.000 0.000, C 0.00039, D 0.00074, E 0.001 78, F 0.001 04, G 0.000 40, H 0.001 0.001; Overall, the risk of malaria is unlikely, but there is still a certain degree of risk of contagion, media and population exposure; the possible malaria risk ranking of eight sample areas is H> E> A> F> B> G> C > D, the highest risk of malaria is H, the lowest is D, the gap between the two is large. Conclusions The reduction of the possibility of malaria risk in China requires that all disease prevention and control institutions in all regions should solve the problems of controlling the source of infection, cutting off the route of transmission and protecting the population at risk. Adhere to government-led risk prevention through monitoring, training, education, communication and collaboration , And gradually improve the malaria risk management system.