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我国工业发展情况能反映国家的经济水平,对研究工业的发展能很好的得出工业总产值的产量变化情况。首先绘制折线图和工业增加值自相关图进行平稳性和季节性分析得出相应的结果。从图中的分析消除趋势同时减小系列波动,对原系列做一阶自然对数逐期差分并且消除季节性。最后建立季节模型计算各模型参数估计结果和各模型检验结果。用所建立的模型预测2013年1至12月工业增加值和白噪声检验,以明确模型的可用性。
The situation of China’s industrial development can reflect the economic level of the country and it can well bring about the output changes of the total industrial output value for the development of the research industry. First draw the line chart and the industrial added value autocorrelation map for the stability and seasonal analysis of the corresponding results. Eliminate the trend from the analysis in the figure while reducing series fluctuations, making a first-order natural logarithmic period difference to the original series and eliminating the seasonality. Finally, a seasonal model is established to calculate the model parameter estimation results and the model test results. The established model was used to predict the industrial added value and white noise test from January to December 2013 to make clear the availability of the model.