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通过将中国主要宏观经济变量、金融市场变量、国际通货膨胀和美国货币政策变量纳入到一个完整的系统中,采用结构化向量自回归模型,分析通货膨胀对中国经济的影响后得知:国际和国内的通货膨胀对中国实体经济和金融市场都有着重要的影响,并会促使货币当局采取紧缩性的货币政策。另外,中国经济和金融系统对通货膨胀的反应存在一定的时滞,国际因素对中国经济的影响随时间逐渐增强。因此,在政策制定方面需要加强对国际通货膨胀的应对,必要时需要以国际通货膨胀为政策制定的依据。
Through the integration of China’s major macroeconomic variables, financial market variables, international inflation and US monetary policy variables into a complete system, using structured vector autoregressive models to analyze the impact of inflation on China’s economy, we know that international and Domestic inflation has a significant impact on both the real economy and the financial markets in China, and will prompt monetary authorities to adopt a tightening monetary policy. In addition, China’s economic and financial system has had some time lag in response to inflation. The impact of international factors on China’s economy has gradually increased over time. Therefore, there is a need to strengthen the response to international inflation in policy making and, if necessary, the basis for policy making with international inflation.