本文通过计量分析发现,农业税的免除使农户直接受惠的程度比较小且不明显,它对农业生产的积极作用更可能是通过改变农户的未来预期来实现的,而农业生产资料价格的波动却在短期内明显影响了农户资金在产业间的投向。为此,政府应出台更多的惠农政策,以促进农业生产和农村经济的稳定发展。 This econometric analysis shows that the exemption of agricultural tax makes the direct beneficiaries of agriculture less and less obvious. Its positive effect on agricultural production is more likely to be realized by changing the future expectation of farmers. However, the fluctuation of the price of agricultural means of production In a short period of time, it has obviously affected the investment of farmers in the industry. To this end, the government should introduce more preferential agricultural policies to promote the steady development of agricultural production and rural economy.