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提出了一类基于包含时间参数Petri网的冲突分析及演化模型,辅助复杂产品主制造商研究合同谈判过程中质量冲突的未来发展并探寻质量争议可能实现的均衡状态。针对复杂产品个性化定制性强的特征,建立冲突分析的Petri网模型基本框架;设计其生成和演化算法研究参与人不确定偏好下可能达到争议均衡状态及实现路径;探寻冲突分析过程中各状态的稳态概率,判别冲突的长期均衡和短期均衡。以我国某型号商用飞机谈判阶段中机体质量标准的争议问题开展案例研究,验证了之前模型和方法的可行性和有效性。
A kind of conflict analysis and evolution model based on Petri net with time parameter is proposed to assist the main manufacturer of complex products to study the future development of quality conflicts in the process of contract negotiation and to explore the possible balance of quality disputes. In view of the characteristics of personalized customization of complex products, this paper establishes the basic framework of Petri net model for conflict analysis. It designs the generating and evolving algorithms to study the possible equilibrium states and paths of dispute under the uncertain preferences of participants. The steady-state probability of conflict to determine the long-term equilibrium and short-term equilibrium. A case study was conducted on the controversial issue of airframe quality standards in the negotiation stage of a commercial aircraft in China. The feasibility and effectiveness of the previous models and methods were verified.