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这是中国轻工发展战略研究中心的一项科研项目的主要成果。 这一课题将我国人口、国民经济、个人收入和消费结构四个部分的发展状况编制成联网的数学模型,输入电子计算机,对我国人民消费的过去和未来进行系统、科学的测算和分析。据悉,将过去40年消费发展状况与对今后30年的消费发展预测联系起来,借助电于计算机进行大跨度综合研究,在国内还属首次。 当然,预测的数据是否可靠最终还要靠实践来检验,但我们相信,这一预测结果,对于鼓舞全国人民致力于经济发展和建设的积极性是很有好处的,同时,这些宝贵的材料对各有关部门的生产和决策将有重要的参考价值。 文中金额数据均按1980年不变价格及当年国家外汇汇率测算。这与党的十二大提出的翻两番和人均国民收入800—1000美元的目标所依据的相同。 作者为本课题的主持人,中国轻工发展战略研究中心的研究员。
This is the main achievement of a research project of China Light Industry Development Strategy Research Center. This topic compiled the networked mathematical model of the development of the population, national economy, personal income and consumption structure in four parts in China into computerized computers and systematically and scientifically measured and analyzed the past and future of people’s consumption in our country. It is reported that the past 40 years of consumer development and consumption growth forecast for the next 30 years linked to the use of electricity in the computer-based long-span comprehensive study for the first time in China. Of course, the predictability of the data is ultimately tested by practice. However, we believe that the result of this prediction is very good for boosting the people’s enthusiasm for economic development and construction. At the same time, Relevant departments of production and decision-making will have important reference value. The data in the text are based on 1980 constant prices and the current national foreign exchange rates. This is based on the same goal as that set forth by the 12th National Party Congress toward the goal of quadrupling and a per capita income of 800-1000 U.S. dollars. The author is the subject of the host, researcher of China Light Industry Development Strategy Research Center.