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目的探讨我国人群心血管病事件发病率和死亡率与危险因素强度和结构之间的联系。方法对中国ＭＯＮＩＣＡ方案１０年心血管病监测有关资料进行单因素相关及多因素回归分析。结果（１）血清胆固醇水平是冠心病事件发病率的显著预测因素，但对冠心病死亡率无明显预测作用；（２）舒张压水平是脑卒中事件发病率和死亡率的显著预测因素；（３）采用多元回归建立的预测模型效果不尽理想；（４）人群危险因素水平趋势与疾病率趋势无显著一致性。结论中国ＭＯＮＩＣＡ方案生态学研究结果较客观地揭示了危险因素水平与心血管病事件率之间的联系，但在探讨前者对后者的预测作用方面有较大局限性。
Objective To explore the relationship between the incidence and mortality of cardiovascular events and the strength and structure of risk factors in Chinese population. Methods Single-factor correlation and multivariate regression analysis were performed on the 10-year monitoring data of cardiovascular diseases in China’s MONICA program. Results (1) Serum cholesterol level was a significant predictor of the incidence of coronary heart disease, but no significant predictors of coronary heart disease mortality. (2) Diastolic blood pressure was a significant predictor of morbidity and mortality in stroke events. 3) The prediction model established by multivariate regression is not effective; (4) There is no significant consistency between the trend of population risk and the trend of disease rate. Conclusion The results of the MONICA program in China reveal objectively the relationship between the risk factors and the rate of cardiovascular disease events. However, there is a great limitation in exploring the former’s predictive value for the latter.