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黄河流域棉花品种区域试验参试品种的皮棉产量、单株铃数、单铃重及衣分等资料为原始数据 ,应用谐波分析技术建立模型进行了拟合及预测研究。经拟合及精度检验 ,拟合指数均在 0 .90以上 ,历史符合率达 1 0 0 % ,模型为一级精度。可预测第 2 0轮区试参试品种的皮棉产量为 1 2 0 9kg· hm- 2 ,单株铃数为 1 5.1 6个 ,单铃重为 5.1 5g,衣分为 38.55%。该项研究为棉花品种发展趋势的长期预测提供了一种新的研究途径
The lint yield, the number of bolls per plant, the boll weight and the lint percentage of cotton cultivars in the Yellow River Basin were used as raw data. The model was established by harmonic analysis and fitted and predicted. After fitting and accuracy test, the fitting indexes are above 0.90, the historical coincidence rate of 100%, the model is first-order accuracy. It is predicted that the lint yield will be 1209kg · hm-2, the number of bolls per plant is 1 5.16, the boll weight is 5.15g, and the coat is divided into 38.55%. This study provides a new approach to long-term prediction of the development trend of cotton varieties