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我们认为,运用“新增运力当量”来分析重卡销量与固定资产投资增幅之间的相关性更加合理。分析表明,固定资产投资增长并不意味着重型货车销量增长,只有在固定资产投资加速增长时,才导致新增运力当量的增长,从而促使重型货车销量上升。基于此,我们在看好重卡行业长期增长的同时,认为2006年只是重卡行业迈出复苏的第一步,整体销量处于平稳增长水平,月度销量走势呈现探底回升趋势。
We think it is more reasonable to use the “new capacity equivalent” to analyze the correlation between the sales of heavy trucks and the growth of fixed asset investment. The analysis shows that the growth of investment in fixed assets does not mean the growth in the sales volume of heavy goods vehicles. Only when the investment in fixed assets accelerates, it leads to the growth of new capacity equivalent, which in turn leads to the increase of sales volume of heavy goods vehicles. Based on this, we are optimistic about the long-term growth of the heavy truck industry. At the same time, we believe 2006 is only the first step for the heavy truck industry to recover. The overall sales volume is at a steady level and the monthly sales trend shows a bottoming-out trend.