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本文采用AK模型和几何布朗运动建立了趋异分析的框架,并运用非参数分析方法,分别用一元和多元的核密度估计,对我国1978年以来的经济增长中的省际趋同模式进行了分析。结果表明,在我国的省级经济增长中,无法获得可信的,存在趋同趋势的数据支撑,我国各省的经济增长路径迄今还没有收敛的迹象,不同省份之间的增长率的差异也随着经济增长而扩大,甚至地区内的产出差距也在增加。论文还表明,我国各省区市之间也不存在俱乐部趋同的趋势。
In this paper, we use the AK model and the geometric Brownian motion to establish the framework of divergence analysis, and use the non-parametric analysis method to analyze the provincial convergence patterns in China’s economic growth since 1978 by using the unary and multivariate kernel density estimates respectively . The results show that in our country’s provincial economic growth, there is no credible and converging trend support for the data. So far, there has been no sign of convergence in the economic growth paths of various provinces in our country. The differences in the growth rates among different provinces also follow the Economic growth has expanded and even the output disparity in the region has also increased. The paper also shows that there is no trend of convergence between clubs in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China.