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产业转移、专业市场和城镇化是社会发展的必经过程,是现代化的必由之路。通过构建向量自回归模型,对1983—2012年中国外商直接投资、社会消费品零售总额和修正后的人口城镇化率的年度时序数据实证研究的。结果表明:三者间有着较为强烈的作用机制,并且产业转移和专业市场发展对特色城镇化有着很强的促进作用,专业市场的发展对产业转移和特色城镇化的作用效果显著,而特色城镇化水平和产业转移对专业市场的发展影响甚微。
Industrial transfer, professional market and urbanization are the necessary steps for social development and are the only way to modernization. By constructing a vector autoregressive model, empirical study of the annual time series data of the total retail sales of China’s foreign direct investment, social consumer goods and the revised population urbanization rate from 1983 to 2012 was conducted. The results show that there is a strong mechanism of action among the three, and the industrial transfer and the development of the professional market have a strong promoting effect on the special urbanization. The development of the professional market has a significant effect on the industrial transfer and the special urbanization. However, The level of technology and industrial transfer have little effect on the development of the professional market.