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利用代际交叠模型与PSR模型分别探讨了人口结构变化与人口跨际流动对房价的影响;利用基于面板数据的一般计量模型与空间计量模型对分析结果进行了实证检验。结果表明,家庭少儿人口数量与老年人口数量均与房价呈现反向变动关系。进一步研究表明,常住人口、人力资本、人均可支配收入、人口抚养及住宅投资额对各大城市房价均起到了正向作用;经济距离加权的研究结果表明,经济发展程度及城市距离间的联动效应是造成人口流动进而引起房价变动的深层次原因。
Using intergenerational overlap model and PSR model, we discuss the effect of population structure change and population trans-boundary mobility on housing prices respectively. Empirical test is conducted by using general measurement model and spatial econometric model based on panel data. The results show that both the number of children in the family and the number of the elderly are inversely correlated with the price of housing. Further studies show that the resident population, human capital, per capita disposable income, population support and residential investment have played a positive role in housing prices in major cities. The results of economic distance-weighted studies show that the degree of economic development and the linkage between urban distances Effect is caused by the flow of people and thus lead to price changes in the deep-seated reasons.