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目的:探讨海宁市手足口病流行规律,为制定科学的防控措施提供依据。方法:运用描述性流行病学方法,对海宁市2008-2010年手足口病病例资料进行统计分析,应用SPSS17.0软件构建ARIMA复合季节模型进行疫情预测。结果:海宁市2008-2010年累计报告手足口病2 287例,年均报告发病率为81.23/10万。发病高峰为5-10月份,夏秋季高发;发病主要集中于0~5岁儿童,占报告总数的91.47%。发病男性多于女性,以散居儿童及幼托儿童为主。全市各乡镇(街道)均有病例报告,3年间不同地区病例分布差异有统计学意义(χ2=107.82,P<0.01),无聚集性疫情发生。2011年预测发病数为1 277例。结论:手足口病的发生存在明显的时间、性别、年龄差异,且海宁市疫情处于上升态势,2011年疫情趋势预测与2008-2010年发病模式类似。
Objective: To explore the epidemic law of hand, foot and mouth disease in Haining city and to provide the basis for making scientific prevention and control measures. Methods: Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the data of hand-foot-mouth disease from 2008 to 2010 in Haining City. The ARIMA composite seasonal model was constructed by SPSS17.0 software to predict the epidemic situation. Results: 2 287 HFMD cases were reported in Haining from 2008 to 2010, with an average annual incidence rate of 81.23 / 100 000. The peak incidence was from May to October, with a high incidence in summer and autumn. The incidence mainly concentrated on children aged 0 to 5, accounting for 91.47% of the total reported. Incidence of more men than women to diaspora and child care-based children. There were case reports in all towns and townships (streets) in the whole city. There was significant difference in the distribution of cases in different areas in 3 years (χ2 = 107.82, P <0.01), and no cluster epidemic occurred. The estimated incidence in 2011 was 1,277. Conclusion: The occurrence of hand-foot-mouth disease has obvious time, sex and age difference. The epidemic situation of Haining City is on the rise. The epidemic trend forecast in 2011 is similar to that of 2008-2010.