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尝试运用最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)对福建省1978-2009年能源消费、劳动力和经济增长三者的因果关系进行检验和分析.常规单位根检验认为能源消费、劳动力和经济增长是一阶单整,I(1);而Zivot & Andrews(ZA)内生性结构突变单位根检验发现三个序列为带有结构突变的趋势平稳过程.ARDL边界检验和格兰杰因果检验结果表明能源消费、劳动力和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,表现为从经济增长、劳动力到能源消费的长期因果关系;而在短期因果关系上,表现为经济增长到能源消费单向因果关系,以及经济增长与劳动力之间的双向因果关系.研究同时对福建省经济增长和能源保护战略提出了政策建议.
Try to test and analyze the causal relationship among the energy consumption, labor force and economic growth in Fujian Province from 1978 to 2009 using the latest ARDL model.The conventional unit root test finds that energy consumption, labor force and economic growth are (ZA), Zivot & Andrews (ZA) endogenous structural mutation unit root test found that the three sequences for the trend with the structural stability of the smooth process .ARDL border test and Granger causality test results show that energy There is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between consumption, labor force and economic growth, showing a long-term causal relationship between economic growth and labor power to energy consumption. In the short-term causal relationship, the one-way causal link between economic growth and energy consumption, Growth and labor force two-way causal relationship between the research at the same time on Fujian’s economic growth and energy conservation strategy put forward policy recommendations.