论文部分内容阅读
在公路网规划中 ,正确地确定区域的公路运输量是一项重要的基础工作 ,公路运输量的时间序列具有复杂的非线性关系 ,难以用单一的模型进行预测 ,针对时间序列具有趋势变动、周期变动和不规则变动的特点 ,文章提出用综合集成的方法分别考虑公路运输量序列中所隐含的 3种变动 ,并针对 3种不同变动的特点分别建立相应的模型进行分析 ,在此基础上再从总体上把握运输量时间序列的变化规律。并结合实例对模型进行了验证 ,表明具有较高的拟合精度 ,为公路运输量的预测提供了一种有效的方法。
In the road network planning, it is an important basic work to determine the road traffic volume in the area correctly. The time series of road traffic volume has complex nonlinear relationship, it is difficult to predict with a single model, and there is a trend change for the time series. Periodic variation and irregular variation. The paper proposes that the three kinds of changes implied in the road traffic volume sequence are separately considered by means of the integrated and integrated method, and the corresponding models are respectively analyzed for the characteristics of the three kinds of changes. Based on this, On the overall grasp of the traffic volume of time series of changes. The model was validated with an example to show that it has high fitting accuracy and provides an effective method for the forecast of road traffic volume.