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水体富营养化已成为全球关注的环境问题之一。研究经济增长与水体富营养化的关系对保障经济增长的同时实现水环境保护的目标具有重要的决策支持价值。本文以鄱阳湖流域为案例区,利用1978年-2008年人均GDP与鄱阳湖水体中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)数据,构建了经济增长与环境质量之间的回归模型,分析了鄱阳湖水体TN、TP浓度随人均GDP增长的变化趋势及原因。研究表明,鄱阳湖流域经济增长与氮磷排放的关系具有库兹涅斯曲线(EKC曲线)特征。鄱阳湖水体中TN、TP浓度随经济增长而增加或减少的变化转折点分别位于人均GDP为8600元/人、7400元/人(以1977年为基期计算)时。目前,由于产业结构优化、新的经济增长点的出现与环境政策的影响,鄱阳湖流域的氮磷排放量已出现下降趋势,但为保持鄱阳湖水质的持续改善,鄱阳湖流域需要进一步优化产业结构,控制氮磷排放,实现经济与生态的协调发展。
Water eutrophication has become one of the global environmental issues of concern. Studying the relationship between economic growth and water eutrophication has an important value for decision-making in ensuring economic growth while achieving the goal of water environment protection. Taking Poyang Lake Basin as a case area, this paper constructs a regression model between economic growth and environmental quality by using per capita GDP from 1978 to 2008 and total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in Poyang Lake water body. Change Trend and Reasons of TN and TP Concentration in Poyang Lake Water with Per Capita GDP Growth. The research shows that the relationship between economic growth and N and P emission in the Poyang Lake basin has the characteristics of the Kuznets curve (EKC curve). Poyang Lake water body TN, TP concentration increases or decreases with economic growth, the turning point were located in the per capita GDP of 8600 yuan / person, 7400 yuan / person (based on 1977). At present, due to the optimization of industrial structure, the emergence of new economic growth points and the impact of environmental policies, the P and N emissions from the Poyang Lake Basin have been on the decline. However, in order to maintain the continuous improvement of Poyang Lake water quality, Poyang Lake Basin needs to further optimize the industry Structure, control of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, to achieve the coordinated development of economy and ecology.