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农村迁移劳动力的市民化和城市融入问题已成为当前学术界和政府管理者关注的焦点。本文构建了一个基于城乡预期和长期保障的迁移劳动力城市融入模型,并利用1998年和2005年武汉市迁移劳动力调查数据验证了这一模型,计量结果显示,城乡预期和长期保障状况是影响迁移劳动力城市融入意愿的重要因素,但是其影响效应有着明显的时代差异。农村劳动力的城乡迁移和个人发展预期逐渐趋于理性;在1998年左右迁移劳动力是否打算融入城市更多地是考虑城乡收入差异,而在2005年左右开始重视长期保障问题。以农村家庭禀赋为基础形成的长期保障效应,在一定程度上削弱了迁移劳动力融入城市的动力。本文的研究有助于深入理解迁移劳动力城市融入影响机制的变迁。
The migration of rural migrant labor force and urban integration has become the current academic and government managers focus. This paper builds a urban-rural-urban migration-based urban-rural integration model based on urban-rural expectation and long-term protection, and verifies this model by using the survey data of migrant labor force in Wuhan in 1998 and 2005. The measurement results show that urban-rural expectation and long- The important factor of the willingness of the city to integrate, but its influence effect has obvious time difference. The expectation of urban-rural migration and personal development of rural laborers is gradually becoming more rational. Whether migrant workers intend to migrate to cities in 1998 or not is to consider urban-rural income disparities more and more attention is paid to long-term safeguard issues around 2005. The long-term protection effect, which is based on rural family endowments, has weakened the motivation to migrate labor into the cities to a certain extent. The research in this paper will help us to understand the changes of the mechanism of migrant labor in cities.