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管网中发生漏失事故时必然会引起其他节点的水压波动,波动程度随漏失位置和漏失流量而变化。基于这一思想,采用模型校核和贝叶斯决策理论分别建立漏失定位模型,分析了两个模型的原理及优缺点,并在此基础上提出一种改进漏失定位模型,该模型对水力模型误差和测量误差有一定的免疫力,而且具有时效性。以CP市供水管网为例,通过消火栓放水模拟漏失,求解改进的漏失定位模型得到漏失概率,从而能确定出漏失节点所在区域,达到较高的检测精度。
In the event of a leak accident in a pipeline network, it is bound to cause water pressure fluctuations in other nodes, and the degree of fluctuation will vary with the leakage location and the leakage flow. Based on this idea, model checking and Bayesian decision theory are respectively used to establish the lost location model. The principle, advantages and disadvantages of the two models are analyzed. Based on the above, an improved model of lost location is proposed. The model is applied to hydraulic model Error and measurement error have a certain immunity, but also timeliness. Taking the CP water supply network as an example, the leakage probability can be obtained by simulating the leakage through the fire hydrant release and solving the improved leakage location model, so as to determine the area where the missed node is located and achieve higher detection accuracy.