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以本溪市1955 ~1996 年的猩红热和流脑逐月发病的数据为根据,利用混沌动力学中“相空间技术”,对流行病过程进行能量谱分析及混沌分析·发现流脑的流行过程是混沌的,猩红热的流行过程是周期的; 并得到本溪流脑数据的混沌迭代模型·在模型参数变化范围内,经历了周期状态、混沌状态、吸引不动的稳定状态之间的转换,这表明流脑流行过程是复杂的,给出流行的“阈值”,以控制其流行涨落;求出流脑的关联分维是2821·为离散时间序列的分析研究提供了一种新方法·
Based on the data of monthly incidence of scarlet fever and meningitis from 1955 to 1996 in Benxi City, the phase space technique in chaos dynamics was used to analyze the energy spectrum and chaos analysis of the epidemic process. The epidemic of meningococcal meningitis was found to be The chaotic and scarlet fever epidemic process is periodic; and the chaotic iterative model of Benxi meridian data is obtained. Through the variation of the model parameters, it undergoes the transition between the periodic state, the chaotic state and the immobile steady state, which indicates The meningococcal epidemic is complex, giving the popular “threshold” to control its epidemic fluctuation; finding the associated fractal dimension of meningitis is 2821 · Provides a new method for the analysis of discrete time series ·