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中国地方政府尚未建立规范的债务管理体制,政府债务没有纳入财政预算管理,也没有定期的债务统计制度;许多地方政府刻意隐瞒债务规模,让国有企事业单位替政府举债。债务的不规范管理,造成对债务规模统计存在诸多困难和争议。本文在明确地方政府债务统计口径的基础上,从国有企业资产负债的异常变化上进行研究,对中国地方政府债务的规模、区域分布和增长情况有一个较为准确的估算,认为2010年国家审计署的统计结果少计算了2.5万亿元的债务规模,至少将真实的债务水平降低了20%;地方政府债务在全球金融危机爆发前就已出现惊人的增长,但在2()09年、2010年期间,受制于中国金融市场的硬约束逐步加强,债务的增长速度比想象的要低。
Chinese local governments have not yet established a standardized debt management system. Government debt is not included in the budget management nor is there a regular debt statistics system. Many local governments deliberately hide the scale of their debts and allow state-owned enterprises and institutions to borrow from the government. Irregular management of debts has caused many difficulties and disputes over the statistics of debt scale. Based on the clear statistics of the debts of local governments, this paper studies the abnormal changes of assets and liabilities of state-owned enterprises, and has a more accurate estimate of the size, regional distribution and growth of the local government debt in China. It concludes that in 2010 the National Audit Office Less than the 2.5 trillion yuan in debt, at least 20% reduction in real debt levels; local government debt has been staggering growth before the global financial crisis, but in 2010 (2010), 2010 During the year, the hard constraints imposed on China’s financial markets have been gradually strengthened, and the debt growth rate is lower than expected.