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目的利用已有的流行性感冒(流感)监测数据制定北京市怀柔区流感预警模型,从而更加科学有效地预警流感的暴发与流行。方法通过对北京市怀柔区第一医院、怀柔区中医院2010—2013年的流感监测资料进行统计分析,确定流感监测基线和预警线。结果流感样病例(ILI)百分比与流感病毒阳性率变化较为一致,均于冬春季出现高峰,两者Spearman相关系数r=0.545,流感预警模型具有一定的指导意义。结论怀柔区流感三级预警模型具有较好的可操作性,简单易行,为基层机构科学防控流感提供依据。
Objective To develop an early warning model of influenza in Huairou District of Beijing by using the existing surveillance data of influenza (influenza), so as to predict the outbreak and epidemic of influenza more scientifically and effectively. Methods Through the statistical analysis of the flu surveillance data of the First Hospital of Huairou District in Beijing and Huairou District Hospital from 2010 to 2013, the baseline of influenza surveillance and the warning line were determined. Results The percentages of influenza-like illness (ILI) were consistent with those of influenza virus. Both peaked in winter and spring. The Spearman correlation coefficient r = 0.545. The flu-early warning model is of guiding significance. Conclusion The three-level early-warning model of influenza in Huairou District has good operability and is simple and easy to provide the basis for scientific prevention and control of influenza in grass-roots institutions.