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不管是遭遇世界经济周期的冲击,还是受到人民币升值的冲击,我国进出口表现出近似同步变动的现象,对此传统理论欠缺解释力。本文从局部均衡模型的微观模型出发重新构建我国的进口方程,新的进口方程和传统的出口方程一起较好地解释我国进出口近似同步变动的现象,并指出当前进出口近似同步变动的根源在于经济全球化。研究结果还表明,人民币在一定幅度内的升值和世界经济衰退会使我国进出口较大幅度下降,但是对我国贸易顺差的影响小。
Whether it is the impact of the world economic cycle or the impact of the appreciation of the renminbi, China’s import and export shows a phenomenon of approximate synchronous changes, and the traditional theory lacks explanatory power. Based on the microscopic model of partial equilibrium model, this paper reconstructs our import equation. The new import equation and the traditional export equation together explain the approximate synchronous change of import and export of our country, and point out that the root cause of the approximate simultaneous change of import and export Economic Globalization. The research also shows that the appreciation of Renminbi in a certain range and the world economic recession will cause the import and export of our country to drop by a large margin, but the impact on China’s trade surplus will be small.