水库调度过程中存在着许多不可预见因素,这些不可预见因素的存在必然会对水库的运行调度带来风险。针对水库调度风险分析,结合风险分析的基础理论,选取一系列风险指标建立,为调度风险分析提供了一种合理可行的途径,也给调度管理人员提供了决策支持。 There are many unpredictable factors in the process of reservoir scheduling. The existence of these unforeseen factors will inevitably bring risks to the operation scheduling of the reservoir. According to the risk analysis of reservoir dispatch and the basic theory of risk analysis, a series of risk indexes are selected to establish a reasonable and feasible approach for dispatching risk analysis, and also provide decision support to dispatcher management.