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在经济数据的不平稳的基础之上,采用GMDH搜索结构突变点的方法,自动搜索结构突变点,调整经济数据的不平稳的情况,再使用已经存在的结构突变点产生虚拟变量并加入到GMDH两水平预测之中,调整数据突变所引起的波动,使得最终得到的预测结构更加准确.采用以上的方法,以四川省进出口贸易数据为例,搜索出四川省进出口贸易结构突变点,使用贸易结构突变点,产生虚拟变量对四川省进出口贸易数据进行预测,提高了进出口贸易预测的精度.图4,表3,参9.
Based on the unsteady economic data, we use GMDH to search for structural change points, automatically search for structural change points and adjust the unsteady economic data. We then use existing structural change points to generate dummy variables and add them to GMDH In the two-level forecast, the fluctuation caused by adjusting the data abrupt change makes the final forecast structure more accurate.Using the above method and the import and export trade data of Sichuan Province as an example, we can find out the abrupt change point of Sichuan’s import and export trade structure, The change of trade structure and the generation of dummy variables predicted the import and export trade data of Sichuan Province, which improved the accuracy of the forecast of import and export trade.