经济复苏前景的不确定导致2013年的原油需求增长仍然乏力,而产油国有足够的富余产能来满足未来几年的需求增长。2013年全球原油供需平衡的状态没有改变,基本面并不支撑高油价。油砂、页岩油等非常规资源在高油价下具有了商业开采价值,可以进一步增加供给;低价的天然气已经形成一定规模的替代,替代效应将抑制油价过高。尽管目前市场中流动性充裕,但由于大部分原油用于实体经济,过高的油价将伤害实体经济,投机资金在原油市场的盈利模式以大幅、频繁波 The uncertainty of the prospects for economic recovery led to the still weak demand for crude oil in 2013, while oil-producing countries have sufficient surplus capacity to meet the demand growth in the coming years. The state of global crude oil supply and demand in 2013 has not changed, and fundamentals do not support high oil prices. Unconventional resources such as oil sands and shale oil have commercial exploitation value under high oil prices and can further increase supply. Low-cost natural gas has already formed a certain scale of substitution, and substitution effect will restrain over-price of oil. Despite the current liquidity in the market, but because most of the crude oil for the real economy, excessive oil prices will hurt the real economy, speculative funds in the crude oil market profit model to large and frequent waves