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我国北方针叶林带是重要的森林资源储藏地,也是林火发生的重灾区,其自然火和人为火所占比例相当.气象因子、地形特征、植被条件、人为基础设施等因素对人为火发生具有显著影响,国内目前应用空间分析技术对北方针叶林带人为火影响因子的研究还存在一定不确定性.本文基于1974—2009年间人为火的空间地理坐标,结合研究地的气象因子、基础地理信息及矢量化林相图,应用Arc GIS 10.0中的空间分析工具和SPSS 19.0的逻辑斯蒂回归模型对影响人为火发生的主要驱动因子进行分析,并建立人为火发生的概率模型.利用HADCM2模式下研究区域未来气象数据对塔河地区2015年人为火发生情况进行计算.结果表明:距离铁路距离(x1)和平均相对湿度(x2)对研究区域人为火发生具有显著影响,并得到火险概率模型P=1/[1+e-(3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)].模型校验结果显示,模型的准确度可达到80%.林火发生预测结果表明,塔河地区2015年4—6月、8月为人为火高发期,其中,4—5月的林火发生概率最高.从火险空间分布来看,高火险主要集中在塔河西部和西南部,铁路线路主要包含在此区域.
The coniferous forest belt in northern China is an important forest resource storage area and also the hardest hit area for forest fires, and the proportion of natural and man-made fires is quite high. The occurrence of anthropogenic fire is caused by meteorological factors, topographical features, vegetation conditions and man-made infrastructure There is still some uncertainty in the research on the influence factors of anthropogenic fire in the north coniferous forest belt by using the spatial analysis technology in China at present.On the basis of the spatial and geographic coordinates of anthropogenic fire from 1974 to 2009 and the combination of the meteorological factors, Information and vectorization of Lin Xiangtu, the ArcGIS 10.0 spatial analysis tools and SPSS 19.0 Logistic regression model to analyze the main driving factors affecting the occurrence of artificial fire, and to establish a probability model of human-induced fire.Using HADCM2 mode Future meteorological data of the study area are used to calculate the anthropogenic fire occurrence in Tahe area in 2015. The results show that the distance from the railway (x1) and average relative humidity (x2) have a significant impact on the occurrence of anthropogenic fire in the study area, and the probability of fire hazard model P = 1 / [1 + e- (3.026-0.00011x1-0.047x2)]. The model verification results show that the accuracy of the model can reach 8 0% .The forecast results of forest fire show that the Tahe area is the highest one in April-June and August in 2015, of which the forest fire probability is the highest in April-May .From the spatial distribution of fire risk, Mainly concentrated in the west and southwestern Tahe, the railway line is mainly included in this area.