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旅游经济效应的预测需要一个科学的方法,才能确保准确性和可操作性。本文提出的旅游经济效应预测评估的标准试图从预测的准确性和预测的涵盖性两个方面进行研究。在简单线性回归模型中,以AIC准则选择适当的阶次后,再利用OLS估计此模型的参数,并以传统的t检验确定截距项是否显著为0。通过分析发现,优化后的AR检验程序不仅可以同时进行两种统计量检验,而且具有计算简单、可操作性强的优势。
Forecasting the economic effects of tourism requires a scientific approach to ensure accuracy and operability. This paper proposes a criterion for predicting the economic impact of tourism economy from two aspects: forecast accuracy and forecasting coverage. In a simple linear regression model, after selecting the appropriate order using the AIC criteria, the parameters of the model are estimated using OLS and the traditional t-test is used to determine if the intercept term is significantly zero. The analysis shows that the optimized AR test program can not only test two kinds of statistics at the same time, but also has the advantages of simple calculation and strong operability.