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本文依据长江上游金沙江屏山站实测资料，用统计试验方法探讨了年、月输沙量的时序变化特性，并在此基础上选取表征年、月输沙量变化特性的模型。结果表明，季节性一阶自回归模型可表征月输沙量的时序变化，年输沙量序列可用P-Ⅲ型边际分布的纯随机模型来刻划;同时建议了一种双层次模型。
Based on the measured data of Pingshan Station in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, the statistical test method is used to investigate the time-varying characteristics of annual and monthly sediment discharge. Based on this, a model of annual and seasonal sediment discharge characteristics is selected. The results show that the seasonal first-order autoregressive model can characterize the seasonal variation of monthly sediment load, and the annual sediment discharge sequence can be scored by a purely stochastic model of P-Ⅲ marginal distribution. A double-level model is also proposed.