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在本文中,台风各个因素(中心气压下降,最大风速半径等)被视为独立的随机变量。这些因素可随机地组成许多模拟台风。并可由此推算出模拟的台风增水及台风潮水位。接着,阐述了这两者分别符合Weibull分布及Gumbel分布。已知某一海域的台风年出现次数符合Poisson分布。因此按复合极值分布的理论,将Poisson-Weibull分布及Poisson—Gumbel分布分别用于计算台风增水及台风潮水位的重现期。最后,用4个港口的资料验证了计算结果。
In this paper, the typhoon’s various factors (central pressure drop, maximum wind speed radius, etc.) are considered as independent random variables. These factors make up many simulated typhoons randomly. It can be deduced that the simulated typhoon increases water level and typhoon tide level. Then, the two cases are respectively in line with Weibull distribution and Gumbel distribution. It is known that the annual occurrence of typhoon in a certain area conforms to the Poisson distribution. Therefore, according to the theory of composite extremum distribution, Poisson-Weibull distribution and Poisson-Gumbel distribution are respectively used to calculate the typhoon accretion period and the typhoon tidal level recurrence period. Finally, the results of the four ports are validated.