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为有效预防涉及复杂系统的灾难性事故,揭示复杂系统一般性事故规律,提出有效的风险控制对策,通过构建与复杂系统相映射的事故系统模型。考虑事故系统的风险动态演化特性,探究复杂系统风险控制新途径。从致因节点输入输出有界和风险熵阈值突破2个角度,给出节点风险涌现的形式化描述。基于耦合同步观点,提出事故涌现的描述方法。引入风险增长速度、外界控制资源和耦合参数等变量。构建事故系统单节点和双节点的风险传递模型。结果表明,为预防事故,应杜绝风险涌现的耦合同步,减小风险增长速度和适量增加外界控制资源,减缓风险传递效应。
In order to effectively prevent the catastrophic accidents involving complex systems, the general accident law of complex systems is revealed and effective risk control measures are proposed. The accident system models mapped with complex systems are constructed. Considering the characteristics of dynamic evolution of accident system, this paper explores new ways to control complex system risk. From the perspective of node input and output boundedness and risk entropy threshold, this paper breaks through two angles and gives a formal description of node risk. Based on the viewpoint of coupling synchronization, a method of describing the emergence of an accident is proposed. The introduction of risk growth rate, external control resources and coupling parameters and other variables. Constructing the single and double node risk transfer model of accident system. The results show that in order to prevent accidents, the coupling of risks should be avoided, the rate of risk increase should be reduced, the amount of external control resources should be appropriately increased, and the risk transfer effect should be mitigated.