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为了探明干旱区流域地表蒸散量时空分布及其变化特征,从而为流域水资源规划、旱涝检测和生态需水量研究提供科学依据,本文基于MOD16蒸散产品和气象站观测数据,运用线性倾向率和相对变化率等方法,分析了艾比湖流域2000—2014年地表实际蒸散(E_a)与潜在蒸散(E_p)的时空分布特征及其变化趋势,进一步揭示二者之间的关系。结果表明:1)近15年内艾比湖流域地表E_a、E_p年际波动不大,多年平均E_a与E_p分别为315.76和1 555.27mm,年平均E_a与E_p的较大差距说明流域整体上缺水、干旱。年内分布处于先增大后减少的单峰型变化趋势,夏季两者差距最大,此时流域最干旱、缺水;2)流域E_a与E_p的空间分布状况正好相反。西北山区、精河—博乐绿洲区、北天山的西段支脉,玛依力山脉等区域水分比较充足。流域东部大范围地区、精河—博乐绿洲周围等区域干旱缺水。3)影响因素分析显示气温是影响流域E_a、E_p时空分布变化的主要因素;4)2000—2014年间E_a总体上处于减少趋势,E_p处于增加趋势,说明流域近15年内干旱加重。
In order to find out the temporal and spatial distribution of surface evapotranspiration and its changing characteristics in arid area, this paper provides a scientific basis for water resources planning, drought and flood detection and ecological water demand in the basin. Based on the MOD16 evapotranspiration products and weather station observation data, And relative rates of change, the temporal and spatial distribution of Evapotranspiration (Ea) and potential evapotranspiration (E_p) in the Lake Aibi Basin from 2000 to 2014 were analyzed, and their trends were also analyzed. The relationship between them was further revealed. The results show that: 1) The surface Ea and E_p of the Lake Aibi in the recent 15 years have little fluctuation, and the annual average E_a and E_p are 315.76 and 1 555.27 mm, respectively. The large annual difference between E_a and E_p indicates that there is a lack of water ,drought. During the year, the distribution increased firstly and then decreased, and the gap between summer and summer was the largest. At this time, the basin was the driest and water-deficient. 2) The spatial distribution of E_a and E_p in the basin was the opposite. Northwest mountainous area, Jinghe - Bole oasis area, the northern part of the northern Tianshan branch, Ma Yili mountains and other regions more adequate water. A large area east of the river basin, Jinghe - Bole Oasis and other areas around the drought and water shortage. 3) The analysis of influencing factors shows that temperature is the main factor affecting the spatial and temporal distribution of E_a and E_p. 4) During the period of 2000-2014, E_a is decreasing and E_p is increasing, which indicates that the drought in the basin has been aggravating in recent 15 years.