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一季度回顾:国际油价先抑后扬,布伦特价格相对平稳1月份国际油价承压下行。月初至中旬,在众多利空因素交织作用下,国际油价承压下行。今年以来,国际石油市场供需形势总体宽松,基本面不支撑油价上涨;伊朗核问题第一阶段协议落实,缓解了地缘政治紧张局面,伊朗和利比亚原油产量恢复则进一步加剧供需宽松态势,国际油价承压。同时,月份美联储开始正式缩减量化宽松货币(QE)规模,加上美国经济复苏前景乐观,市场对美联储进一步缩减QE的预期不断升温,国际油价下行压力较大。此外,投机者抛仓动力较强也对油价造成下行压力。
A review of the first quarter: the international oil prices Xianyihouyang, Brent relatively stable prices in January down the international oil prices pressure. From early to middle of the month, with the combination of many negative factors, the international oil price has been under pressure. Since the beginning of this year, the supply and demand situation in the international oil market has been generally relaxed. The fundamentals have not supported the rise in oil prices. The implementation of the first phase of the Iran nuclear issue has eased the geopolitical tensions and the recovery of crude oil output in Iran and Libya further aggravated the supply and demand easing. Pressure In the meantime, the Federal Reserve started formally curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) scale in May. Coupled with optimistic economic recovery in the United States, the market is still on the prospect of a further reduction of the QE by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the international oil prices are under downward pressure. In addition, speculators have more incentive to put downward pressure on oil prices.