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为了了解本刊编辑顾问对今后十年电子光学动态的预言,编辑们找了一些工业经销人谈谈对今后电子光学的预测——这是迄今尚未征求的一个方面的意见。由于受到时间与来源的限制,所以我们选用了改型的特尔斐(Delphi)预测方法,这里列出特尔斐轮盘的第一圈的初步结果,在这一圈内,大约有275个工业经销专家收到了邮去的问题简表,内容涉及各公司生产的多达十一种主要类别的电子光学产品。本文所列的初步结果是预测反映的初貌。第二圈的问题调查表经过修改,形式稍有不同,将尽可能快地寄给全部参与者,秋季可得到第二圈的结果。由于一些主要产品都由许多公司同时生产,而在某些类别的产品中又没有压倒优势的回答率,所以不可能简单地把所有的数字加起来。大胆地说,电子光学的销售额将是十亿美元。我们希望第二圈结果会更完整。在各类主要产品中,产品既按一般方法分类(如热释电物质、光电倍增管、硅光电二极管,Hg Cd Te 探测器等),也按应用领域(激光焊接、激光打孔、医用激光器、激光退火等)来分类,在产品得以出售情况下此方法是适当的。在不同领域中一些产品与另一些产品可以相互比较,其结果是乐观的。例如,满意地看到,光电倍增管与光电信增管电源的两方经销
In an effort to understand the editorial consultants' prediction of the dynamics of elec- tronics in the next decade, editors looked for industrial distributors to talk about the future of electro-optics - an opinion so far not sought. Due to the limitation of time and source, we chose a modified Delphi prediction method. Here we show the initial results of the first lap of the Delphi wheel. In this circle, there are about 275 Industrial distribution specialists received a short list of issues addressed by mail, covering as many as eleven major categories of electronic optical products produced by various companies. The initial result presented in this article is the first appearance of the forecast. The questionnaire on the second lap, modified to a slightly different form, will be sent to all participants as soon as possible and the second lap will be available in autumn. Since some major products are produced by many companies at the same time and there is no overwhelming response rate in some categories of products, it is impossible to simply add up all the numbers. To be bold, sales of electronic optics will be billions of dollars. We hope the second lap will be more complete. Products are classified according to common methods (eg pyroelectric substance, photomultiplier tube, silicon photodiode, Hg Cd Te detector, etc.) in all major product categories, as well as in application areas (laser welding, laser drilling, medical lasers , Laser annealing, etc.), this method is appropriate where the product is sold. Some products are compared with others in different fields and the result is optimistic. For example, we can see with satisfaction that both the photomultiplier tube and the phototesting tube power supply are distributed to both sides