目的：建立肾综合征出血热（ＨＦＲＳ）Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型。方法：用游程检验对发病序列进行随机性检验。结果：提示ＨＦＲＳ疫苗应在高危人群和高发地区人群中接种；用Ｂｏｘ－Ｊｅｎｋｉｎｓ模型对建德市ＨＦＲＳ发病作实验预测研究，结果准确。结论：该模型适合于实际预测，不失为疾病预测中快速、准确的模型 Objective: To establish a Box-Jenkins model of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS). Methods: Run tests were used to test the randomness of the onset sequences. Results: The results suggest that HFRS vaccine should be vaccinated in high-risk and high-risk population. The Box-Jenkins model is used to predict the incidence of HFRS in Jiande City. The results are accurate. Conclusion: This model is suitable for the actual prediction, which is a fast and accurate model for disease prediction