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目前艾滋病(AIDS)已成为我国面临的主要公共卫生问题之一,为了在某种程度上对疫情的发展做出估计和预测,对元胞自动机方法进行了研究,结合AIDS传播机理和特点,建立了一个AIDS传播模型。通过传播模型分析了隔离力度和AIDS免疫人对AIDS传播的影响,研究了AIDS的传播机理、特点和控制因素以及某种程度上对疫情的发展做出估计和预测。模型结构灵活,能够在演化过程中随时改变控制策略,这是传统微分方程模型所不能比拟的,对病的传播控制和预防有着重要的意义,而且对AIDS流行病学的教学中起到以往课堂教学所不能起的作用。
At present, AIDS has become one of the major public health problems in our country. In order to estimate and predict the development of the epidemic to a certain extent, the cellular automaton method is studied. Combining with the AIDS transmission mechanism and characteristics, Established a model of AIDS transmission. The impact of isolation intensity and AIDS immunization on AIDS transmission was analyzed by transmission model. The transmission mechanism, characteristics and control factors of AIDS and the estimation and prediction of the epidemic were estimated to some extent. The flexible structure of the model can change the control strategy at any time in the process of evolution, which is unmatched by the traditional differential equation model and has important significance for the control and prevention of the disease. Moreover, it plays a role in the past teaching of AIDS epidemiology Teaching can not play a role.