论文部分内容阅读
每一次技术-产业革命或巨浪都会经历“导入期”和“扩展期”两大阶段;每阶段又有两个子阶段,导入期的“入”和“癫狂”阶段,以及扩展期的“综合”和“成熟”阶段。根据历史数据,每次巨浪从开始到结束须持续40至年60余年。目前资本主义共经历了四个半这样的阶段,就是说,现在正处于第五巨浪——信息革命时代的中途半端 作为风险资本,金融资本在入期把尚处于萌芽状态的新技术和新产业推到了舞台中央,在癫狂期也以其惯有的狂热创建了一系列耗资巨大的新经济的基础设施 经历导入期后,上一次巨浪形成的规则终于彻底让位于新的范式,生产资本在金融资本名声狼藉之后成为新时期的主角,两者共同打造了一个新经济的外部性和规模性充分涌流、经济持续增长、就业充分、收入分配较为平均的黄金时代。若干年后,这一波巨浪开始丧失动能,由此步入成熟期。在核心国家,新一轮的技术革命正在酝酿,金融资本在向外围国家转移的同时,开始搜索有望启动下一次巨浪的技术创新 从总体上来看,中国的经济和产业发展正处于第三和第四次产业革命的阶段。从技术和产业革命的周期性演变来看,中国仍然是一个外围国家。本次巨浪中,我们必须完成两次大的工业革命——大规模生产和信息化,方才有望在几十年后的另一次技术革命中登顶
Each technology-industry revolution or wave will experience two stages of “introduction period” and “extension period”; there are two sub-stages in each stage, the stage of “into” and “madness” in the period of introduction, “And” mature "stage. According to historical data, each wave must last from 40 to 60 years from the beginning to the end. At present, capitalism has gone through four and a half phases. That is to say, it is now in the mid-fifth half of the epoch of the fifth wave-the information revolution. As a venture capital, financial capital is still in its infancy when it comes to capitalization. The industry was pushed to the center of the arena to create a series of infilled new economy infrastructures with its usual frenzy during the insane period. After the introductory period, the last rule of wave formation finally gave way to the new paradigm, Capital has become the protagonist of the new era after the infamous financial capital. Both have jointly created a golden age where the externalities and scale of the new economy are fully in flux, with sustained economic growth, full employment and more evenly distributed income. A few years later, the waves started to lose their momentum and entered a period of maturity. In the core countries, a new round of technological revolution is brewing. While capital stocks are being transferred to peripheral countries, they start to search for technological innovations that are expected to start the next wave. On the whole, China’s economy and industrial development are now at the third and The fourth stage of the industrial revolution. From the cyclical evolution of technology and industrial revolution, China is still a peripheral country. In this huge wave, we must have completed two major industrial revolutions, mass-production and informatization, before we could summit another technological revolution in the next few decades