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前苏联计量史学家 Д·B·杰奥皮克用“描述统计法”研究《春秋》十二公的“正品年份数” ,得出了孔子未作《春秋》的结论。本文用“概率统计法”建立了描写“正品年份”时代变化规律的数学模型 ,按十二公的“在位年数”及 11个“等距时代”分别进行了X2 检验 ,发现数学模型与历史实况不存在“显著性差异” ,无法“拒绝”孔子作《春秋》的“史学假说” ,由此纠正了杰奥皮克的失误 ,得出了《春秋》系孔子所作的推断性结论。
Former Soviet Union metrology historian DH Geopick used “descriptive statistics” to study the “authentic years” of the “Spring and Autumn Period” twelve official accounts, and reached the conclusion that Confucius did not make “Spring and Autumn Annals.” In this paper, a mathematical model describing the changing regularity of the “authentic year” was established by “Probabilistic Statistics”. The X2 test was conducted according to the twelve years of “incumbency” and eleven “equidistant times”, and the mathematical model and history There is no “significant difference” in reality, and “history hypothesis” of “Spring and Autumn” can not be “rejected” by Confucius. Thus, the errors of Jieopick were corrected and the inferred conclusion made by Confucius in Spring and Autumn Period was drawn.